What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for property markets
Before the crisis, an average of 21.2 million barrels of oil and refined products a day and about 11 billion cubic feet of liquefied gas a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to EIA data for 2025. Since 28 February 2026 the strait has been effectively closed to commercial shipping. In the second quarter of 2026, 4.9 million barrels a day and 0.8 billion cubic feet of gas passed through it.
The globe shows where these flows go and which countries lose supply if the strait is closed. Below is what this shock did to property markets.
What happened to Gulf property markets
At the start of the crisis WhiteIndex published a stress scenario. Its main conclusion for real estate was this: Persian Gulf markets would first freeze — fewer deals, but prices holding. If the crisis dragged on, a correction would follow, deepest where the share of foreign buyers is highest.
What the data showed by October 2026:
- Dubai — an immediate correction. The ValuStrat price index fell 5.9% in March, the first drop since 2020. From late February to August prices declined by 10.2%. In the second quarter, sales of ready homes fell 41.5% year on year. By September the decline had almost stopped.
- Qatar — a freeze without a correction. In the second quarter visitor arrivals fell 45% year on year, while home prices slipped only 0.3%.
- Saudi Arabia — a freeze without a correction. In the first quarter home sales fell 53% year on year, but in the second quarter the price index rose 1.3%.
- Bahrain. In the first quarter home purchases by foreigners fell 29%, and their share of deals dropped from about 13% to 9%.
- Oman — growth. The property price index rose 22.7% year on year in the second quarter, and residential land in Muscat 40.6%. But the growth began before the war: in the first quarter it was already 15.9%. The data do not yet allow linking it to “safe haven” demand.
Bottom line. The market most dependent on foreign buyers — Dubai — fell the most, while Qatar and Saudi Arabia held their prices.
Two caveats. The effect of the strait’s closure cannot be separated from the effect of the war itself. And Dubai’s market was expected to cool even before the crisis because of the large volume of new housing.
Who gains
Meanwhile, major LNG decisions are being taken outside the Gulf. In the United States, final investment decisions were taken in 2026 on three export projects: the CP2 expansion, Commonwealth LNG and Delfin. In Canada, on 30 September 2026 the second phase of LNG Canada was approved, raising capacity from 14 to 28 million tonnes a year. Some of these projects were in preparation before the crisis. There are no data yet on how this affects real estate around the terminals — we are watching.
There are indirect signs of a pick-up in Panama as a logistics hub. In the first half of 2026 its economy grew 5.5%, transport and storage 10.4%, and re-exports from the Colón Free Zone 26.9%. There are no direct data yet on demand for commercial property.
Questions and answers
- How did the closure of Hormuz affect property prices in Dubai?
- Prices fell immediately: by 5.9% in March 2026 and by 10.2% from late February to August (ValuStrat index). By September the decline had almost stopped.
- Did property prices fall in Qatar and Saudi Arabia?
- No. There were fewer deals, but prices held: in Qatar −0.3% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, in Saudi Arabia +1.3%.
- Why are property prices rising in Oman?
- Oman’s price index rose 22.7% year on year in the second quarter of 2026. The growth began before the crisis; a link to an inflow of buyers from neighbouring countries is not yet confirmed by the data.
- Where do the globe’s data come from?
- Chokepoints: quarterly EIA tanker-tracking data. Routes: EIA, the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026, IEA, US DOE and other sources, with a link for each route. Every volume is marked as published in the source, derived from source data, or an estimate. Estimates are hidden by default.