January 2026
Canada Real Estate Market: Overview, Outlook, and Opportunities
House Price Index
The Canadian real estate price index remained on a plateau from 2023, showing only minor fluctuations. It entered this phase following a modest decline observed in 2022. However, in 2025, the ratchet effect could no longer sustain the weakening market, and the index began to decline.
Number of Real Estate Transactions
Transaction volumes in the market exhibit a contradictory form of stagnation, as such a pattern is inherently atypical. However, it underscores underlying market weakness and points to a negative outlook.
Price per Square Meter
The dynamics of the average price per square meter also reflect the prevailing stagnation in the market.
Price per Square Meter
In the largest cities, prices increased in 2025; however, they remain significantly below the levels observed in the turning point year of 2023. The market appears as an unstable system, subject to inconsistent and, at times, irrational regulation.
Price per Square Meter
An expanded sample of 10 cities further complements the overall picture.
Rental Yield
Calgary records the highest rental yields, exceeding 6% on average, which indicates strong buyer interest in the region and a relative supply shortage. However, in 2025, Edmonton—the second major city in the region—has begun to converge toward similar yield levels.
Market Potential and Outlook
The Canadian real estate market currently presents a generally pessimistic outlook, with the notable exceptions of Calgary and Edmonton. The growth of this region (Alberta) is driven by a more favorable tax environment, including the absence of certain taxes imposed in other regions, as well as more affordable housing compared to Vancouver and Toronto. This has made Alberta a key destination for internal migration.
Population inflow into Calgary reached approximately 5% in 2024, leading to a surge in rental prices. In 2025, migration flows to Alberta declined by around 20%, but are expected to remain positive through 2026–2028, maintaining the region’s attractiveness for both early-stage (pre-construction) investors and rental property investors. Amid rising prices and strong rental demand, the effective average return on invested capital is projected to reach 7–7.5% annually by 2026. Townhouses and multifamily rental properties offer the highest potential.
Canada had exceptionally strong economic potential at the beginning of the 21st century; however, the current real estate market reflects the cost of past policy missteps and missed opportunities.
A meaningful return to growth would require substantial structural reforms and a strategic shift toward long-term national priorities—an outcome that appears unlikely under current domestic and external conditions.
At present, Canada is not among the most attractive markets for investment.
The Canadian real estate market currently presents a generally pessimistic outlook, with the notable exceptions of Calgary and Edmonton. The growth of this region (Alberta) is driven by a more favorable tax environment, including the absence of certain taxes imposed in other regions, as well as more affordable housing compared to Vancouver and Toronto. This has made Alberta a key destination for internal migration.
Population inflow into Calgary reached approximately 5% in 2024, leading to a surge in rental prices. In 2025, migration flows to Alberta declined by around 20%, but are expected to remain positive through 2026–2028, maintaining the region’s attractiveness for both early-stage (pre-construction) investors and rental property investors. Amid rising prices and strong rental demand, the effective average return on invested capital is projected to reach 7–7.5% annually by 2026. Townhouses and multifamily rental properties offer the highest potential.
Canada had exceptionally strong economic potential at the beginning of the 21st century; however, the current real estate market reflects the cost of past policy missteps and missed opportunities.
A meaningful return to growth would require substantial structural reforms and a strategic shift toward long-term national priorities—an outcome that appears unlikely under current domestic and external conditions.
At present, Canada is not among the most attractive markets for investment.